The Signal and the Noise

This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise

UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade."—The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

More Books:

The Signal and the Noise
Language: en
Pages: 544
Authors: Nate Silver
Categories: Political Science
Type: BOOK - Published: 2012-09-27 - Publisher: Penguin

UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade."—The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all
The Signal and the Noise. Differentiating Stylometric Signals in the Analysis of Literary Texts
Language: en
Pages:
Authors: Judith Brottrager
Categories: Political Science
Type: BOOK - Published: 2020 - Publisher:

Books about The Signal and the Noise. Differentiating Stylometric Signals in the Analysis of Literary Texts
Summary of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media
Language: en
Pages: 38
Authors: Milkyway Media
Categories: Study Aids
Type: BOOK - Published: 2018-08-31 - Publisher: Milkyway Media

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t (2012), considers the common shortcomings statisticians face when attempting to make predictions. While bad predictions can lead to setbacks and false beliefs, accurate predictions can advance scientific knowledge, government efficiency, the quality of education, and other
The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes
Language: en
Pages: 46
Authors: Milkyway Media
Categories: Bayesian statistical decision theory
Type: BOOK - Published: 2012-11 - Publisher:

The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst,
The Journey...and the Voice, the Signal and the Noise
Language: en
Pages: 248
Authors: Vijay Baldev Mehra
Categories: Fiction
Type: BOOK - Published: 2012-03-01 - Publisher: Createspace Independent Pub

As Amar starts his journey, he has no idea that this “little journey” is going to give him insights into the big one, the journey of life. Throughout the flight, Amar zones in and out of scenes from his life—his highly successful career, his successes and failures as a human

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